Canada beats South Africa 1-0 with 17 shots and a better second half, advancing to the World Cup Round of 16.
Published:Canada played against South Africa in the Round of 32 of the World Cup at the Los Angeles Stadium on Sunday. The Canadian Men’s National Team won the match 1-0. This result secured their first knockout stage victory in the history of the tournament.
The game started as a difficult test. South Africa presented a strong defense, led by goalkeeper Ronwen Williams. They stopped Canada from scoring during the early stages of the match. However, Canada showed a clear improvement from the first to the second half. The team increased their offensive pressure, changed their passing rhythm, and took control of the game after the halftime break.
The substitution of Alphonso Davies into the game in the 75th minute helped the Canadian attack create more chances. As a result of their better second half, the team finished the match producing 1.56 xGF (Expected Goals For) and recorded a total of 17 shots against the South African goal.
The winning moment happened very late in the match. In the 92nd minute, midfielder Stephen Eustaquio controlled the ball and scored with a precise strike to win the game. Head coach Jesse Marsch praised the players after the match for their focus and effort on the field.
With this result, Canada advances to the Round of 16. The team will travel to Houston for their next match on Saturday, July 4. They will play against the winner of the game between the Netherlands and Morocco.
See also: Canada vs Bosnia | Canada vs Qatar | Canada vs Switzerland | Canada vs Marroco
My bet for Canada vs South Africa
Canada being priced as favorites at -143 odds is way overvalued for a matchup like this. It’s important to note that this game won’t be in Vancouver or Toronto, where the first two matches took place, but at SoFi Stadium. Although Canadian fans will show up in numbers and represent the majority, it’s still not Canada.
The Canadian national team has shown plenty of grit, drive, and a solid ability to fight back. We saw this in their opener, when they bounced back to draw 1-1 with Bosnia, and in the last round’s 2-1 loss to Switzerland, where they rallied after going down 2-0.
In those games, they generated 1.25 xGF and 1.70 xGF, respectively. The team creates chances. Against Qatar, in that 6-0 win, Canada produced 4.60 xGF – but that was against one of the worst teams in the World Cup, who played with two men down from the 53rd minute onward.
This does make Canada the favorites, and they deserve to be, just not at -143 odds. Right now, bet365 has them at -303 odds to qualify. On the other hand, South Africa is heavily underestimated at +400 odds to win and +240 to qualify.
The African side has already faced a knockout scenario in this tournament, where they absolutely needed a win and pulled off a 1-0 victory over South Korea. It was a match with 1.13 xGF. They are a team that has been improving as the tournament progresses. They started the World Cup losing 2-0 to Mexico, drew 1-1 with Czechia after pushing hard for a late equalizer, and then beat South Korea.
The South African squad brings a lot of pace and a touch of skill, but they are defensively weak.
Canada doesn’t exactly look solid defensively either. That’s why their -143 odds to win the match seem crazy to me. The goals Canada conceded against Switzerland came from defensive blunders (the first one) and a mistake by goalkeeper Crépeau (the second).
Nerves could take over, and a lack of experience at this stage might play a role too, making it tough to call a winner here. I have to admit I like Canada more, but not at a price as ridiculous as -143.
There is good value on both teams to score, and that’s the bet I like the most.
My bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ +105 on bet365
Author:
Lucas Portela
Owner, BoldGambler • Avanhandava/SP
Oddsmaker, affiliate and content creator in the iGaming industry.