England 4-2 Croatia Match Review

Thomas Tuchel’s intense England side dominate Croatia 4-2 in Dallas, leaving me, a Brazilian betting expert happily corrected.

Last Updated: 21 June 2026

England beat Croatia 4-2 this Wednesday in Dallas. England, the pre-match bookmakers’ favourites (8/11), dominated the game and won with class. Led by Harry Kane, the Three Lions finished with 2.80 xG from 22 shots, while conceding just 0.71 xG.

As a Brazilian, I was surprised. I wasn’t expecting this, so much so that below I will stand by my reasoning for the pick I tipped. The omissions of Palmer and Foden from the squad is, in my view – based on what has reached us and what I see in football – a mistake. Either way, the German manager Thomas Tuchel gave a solid response to his critics. Remember that, for him, a good football team isn’t necessarily made of superstars, but of good players who fit the game plan.

Harry Kane opened the scoring after 10 minutes with a penalty. Pickford made a mistake for Martin Baturina’s equaliser, but Kane made it 2-1 in the 42nd minute, only for Petar Musa to equalise again in first-half stoppage time. However, by the end of the first half, English dominance was already clear, and it continued into the second half, with Bellingham and Rashford netting the third and fourth goals.

In my view, England weren’t in the top three favourites, and what they did in this opening match has undoubtedly made me change my mind. I think the key for them was turning the game into a sort of EPL match: highly physical and intense. So much so that by the end of the game, we saw the attack pressing the Croatian defence, along with Harry Kane tracking back to defend. If I were English, I’d be excited about this national team on World Cup.

See my betting tips for England vs Ghana.

My Bet for England vs Croatia

This year, the Three Lions have faced three opponents who are in this World Cup: Uruguay, Japan, and New Zealand, drawing 1-1, losing 1-0, and winning 1-0. That narrow victory came against New Zealand. Throughout these fixtures, England were always the better side in terms of expected goals (xG) and, excluding penalties (Uruguay converted one), they consistently kept opponents below 0.75 xGA.

Looking at the team news, the backline is expected to feature James, Guéhi, Konsa, and O’Reilly, shielded by Elliot Anderson and Rice. Defensively, that is a solid, very robust setup.

Croatia, on the other hand, have had a rather poor 2026 in terms of expected goals. All their matches have seen them finish with under 1.20 xGF, and in two of those fixtures—against Brazil and Belgium—they failed to create even 0.70 xGF.

Backing England to win the match is a decent shout, and it is a bet I would normally clear, but the current odds of 31/40 (1.72) feel far too short for punters. The Asian Goal Line is sitting at 2, 2.5, and it would be an easy call on the Under if the line were a flat 2.5.

I don’t see any massive reasons for either England or Croatia to fly out of the blocks with a high-intensity attacking display in the first half. Both managers know that a defeat here leaves them with a massive mountain to climb in the group.

With the first-half Asian Goal Line currently set at 1.0, backing the Under looks like excellent value.

My Bet: Under 1.0 First Half Asian Goals @ 4/5 with Bet365

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