England vs Mexico: Three Lions Advance to WC Quarter-Finals

England brave the Azteca cauldron to beat Mexico 3-2. Read the match analysis ahead of Saturday's quarter-final against Norway.

Last updated: 6 July 2026

England produced a performance of immense maturity and grit to defeat co-hosts Mexico 3-2 in a dramatic World Cup Round of 16 clash at the iconic Azteca Stadium. Despite playing nearly the entire second half with ten men, Thomas Tuchel’s side weathered an absolute cauldron of noise to secure a memorable victory and book a quarter-final date with Norway on Saturday, 11 July.

Following an hour-long delay due to severe thunderstorms, the match exploded into life just past the half-hour mark. The exceptional Jude Bellingham silenced the fanatical home crowd with two goals in the space of 98 seconds, first converting a Bukayo Saka cross with a diving header, before clinically doubling the advantage from a Harry Kane assist. Julian Quiñones pulled one back for Mexico just before the break, but the real drama unfolded in the 54th minute when defender Jarell Quansah was sent off for a high challenge after a VAR review.

Faced with an intense Mexican onslaught at an altitude of over 7,000 feet, England held their nerve. Anthony Gordon won a penalty on the hour mark, which Kane calmly dispatched. Although the England captain later conceded a spot-kick at the other end – allowing Raúl Jiménez to set up a frantic finish – Tuchel shifted to a five-man defence to see out 11 gruelling minutes of stoppage time.

Equalising Peter Shilton’s record of 17 World Cup appearances, goalkeeper Jordan Pickford was outstanding, pulling off two world-class saves to deny Jiménez. England now head into Saturday’s quarter-final brimming with belief.

Pick for England vs Mexico

Hello to everyone in the UK, especially in England. Mexico is a decent team- very good, in fact – and they are playing at home. Technical quality and the strength of the home crowd are always major factors. I know England has the technique, and perhaps even more physicality and fan support, but have you considered the context of the altitude? Let me tell you a bit about that.

Here in Brazil, the word “altitude” dominates sports programs every year. Brazilian clubs travel to play at extreme altitudes in neighboring South American countries. In El Alto, Bolivia, for example, it is over 4,400 meters above sea level. What does that mean? Less air density and more ball speed.

I’ve followed European football and the Premier League since I was very young, and I have never heard “altitude” mentioned in European matches.

The altitude in Mexico City, at the Estadio Azteca, is about half of that. It’s 2,200 meters above sea level. It doesn’t mean the challenge is exactly half – it’s not a simple math equation – but it is definitely something to consider.

Mexico has played well and has yet to concede a goal. The best team they faced was Ecuador, and they won 2-0. There were rumors that some Ecuadorian players were threatened by a Mexican cartel – something I find plausible. And between us: who would even go public with that kind of information?

I don’t think there will be any such threats against the English team, but going back to Ecuador: they are a very good, very physical side. England is better.

To me, the strongest point of the English team is their defensive system, and apparently all the oddsmakers agree, as the Asian goal line for this match is set at 2 with odds of 4/5. Only Ecuador and Ivory Coast, in their opener, had a lower Asian line at 3/4.

I wanted to bet on the under, but I won’t anymore with 3/4 on under 2. I believe there is an advantage in the field conditions, altitude, and crowd support, the Mexican odds of 6/5 to advance offer value compared to England’s 2/3. If this game were being played in the USA or Canada, I wouldn’t make this bet.

My Bet: Mexico to Qualify @ 6/5 on bet365

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